The joint US-Israeli airstrikes that claimed the life of Iran’s Supreme Leader have not resulted in the immediate collapse of the country’s military capabilities. In fact, the IRGC and the regular armed forces have signaled their intent to continue their regional operations without interruption, asserting that their mission transcends the life of any single individual.
In the streets of Tehran, the atmosphere is one of enforced calm. Paramilitary units have been deployed in massive numbers to prevent any potential uprising. This domestic “lockdown” is a response to the clear signs of internal dissent that have cropped up in recent years, including the recent high-profile blunder on state television that went viral.
Constitutionally, the “Council of Three” has stepped in to manage the day-to-day operations of the state. This group acts as a placeholder while the Assembly of Experts begins the opaque process of vetting candidates. The IRGC’s influence over this process cannot be overstated, as any new leader will need their full backing to maintain control over the Persian Gulf.
One of the most debated names in succession circles is Mojtaba Khamenei. While he lacks the religious standing of some of his peers, his connections within the security forces make him a formidable contender. The decision to move toward a family-based succession would be a historic pivot for the Islamic Republic, potentially sparking fresh internal conflict.
The death of the Leader also puts Iran’s nuclear strategy at a crossroads. The religious edict against nuclear weapons was a personal policy of the late Ayatollah. Without his guiding hand, the military may advocate for a policy change, viewing nuclear capability as the only way to prevent future high-level assassinations by foreign powers.
