Will Israel’s Regional Power Play Succeed with Syria and Lebanon?

Israel is attempting a regional power play, expressing interest in formalizing ties with Syria and Lebanon, but the success of this diplomatic endeavor hinges on overcoming deeply entrenched disagreements. Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced on Monday that Israel sees an opportunity with Iran perceived as weakened, but firmly stated the Golan Heights is non-negotiable.
The Middle East has been profoundly impacted by recent events, including nearly two years of conflict in Gaza, Israeli operations in Lebanon, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Israeli leaders believe these shifts create a unique window for expanding their “circle of peace,” building on the 2020 Abraham Accords.
However, a senior Syrian official has emphatically declared that the Golan Heights are non-negotiable for any normalization with Israel, asserting that the territory is an integral part of Syria. This statement comes in direct response to Israel’s demand that the Golan will remain under Israeli control.
Furthermore, the Syrian official clarified that any normalization efforts must be part of the comprehensive 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, which calls for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s Foreign Minister, however, deemed conditioning normalization on Palestinian statehood “not constructive” and a threat to Israel’s security, illustrating the deep ideological chasm and the formidable challenges to Israel’s regional power play.